Data, not opinions · updated 4 Nov 2026
26 years of Indian markets, in six charts
Every chart here is worked out from NSE's official index data going back to 2000, Gold BeES prices and AMFI fund NAVs, and it refreshes every evening after the close. None of it is a forecast. It is what actually happened, so you can judge today's market against it.
By Prateek Gupta, CA, CS · AMFI-registered mutual fund distributor · data to 4 Nov 2026
1 · Where we are now
Is this fall unusual? Every Nifty fall since 2000
The Nifty 50 closed at 23,960.60 on 4 Nov 2026, 9.0% below its record close of 26,328.55 on 2 Jan 2026. Since 2000 it has fallen 15% or more from a record 10 times before this one, and it recovered every time: on average 12 months after the bottom, and never more than 27 months.
Falls of 15% or more · tap one to see it
The worst was 60%, from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008; it took 34 months to get back to the old high. The Covid fall of 38% was made good just 8 months after the bottom. This fall has been 15.6% at its worst so far, at 22,231.80 on 8 Oct 2026.
Replay any of these falls with your own money → Watch three investors live through 2008, 2015–16, 2020 and 2024–26: one stays put, one pauses the SIP, one sells in panic.
Nifty 50 price index (dividends not included), daily closes from NSE. A fall runs from a record close to the next close above it; months are counted from the bottom to that recovery. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
2 · Every SIP since 2000
A monthly SIP started in any month since 2000: how has it done?
Each square is a monthly SIP in the Nifty 50 total return index, started in that month and kept going until 4 Nov 2026. Of the 263 SIPs that have run five years or more, 100% are in profit. One started in January 2008, weeks before the worst crash of the century, has returned 11.7% a year: ₹22.60 lakh put in has become ₹75.98 lakh.
Show the numbers as a table
Instalments at each month's last close; value at the 4 Nov 2026 close. Returns a year are XIRR. SIPs started in the last 12 months are left out: too young to judge. Index returns are before fund costs and taxes; you cannot invest in an index directly. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
3 · Time in the market
How often did Nifty investors lose money? It depends on how long they stayed
Take every trading day since January 2000 as a possible start. Held for one year, the Nifty 50 (with dividends) lost money 23% of the time, and returns ran from −55% to +108%. Held for 7 years or more, it never lost money: the worst 10-year stretch still made 5.1% a year, and the worst 15-year stretch 8.6%.
Show the numbers as a table
With a monthly SIP the pattern is the same: 24% of one-year SIPs ended in a loss, none of those held 7 years or more did, and the worst 10-year SIP made 4.7% a year.
Nifty 50 Total Return Index from NSE, daily closes from 3 January 2000 to 4 Nov 2026. Lump sum: every trading day as a start. SIP: instalments at each month-end, valued a month after the last one. Returns a year (CAGR or XIRR), before costs and taxes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
4 · The best days
Miss the 10 best days and you keep less than half
₹1 lakh put into the Nifty 50 on 3 Jan 2000 and left alone grew to ₹21.57 lakh (12.1% a year) by 4 Nov 2026. Out of 6,673 trading days, missing only the 10 best would have left ₹9.88 lakh. And 7 of those 10 best days came within two weeks of one of the 20 worst: the rebound tends to arrive in the middle of the panic, when it feels safest to be out.
The 10 best days since 2000
Nifty 50 Total Return Index, daily closes from NSE. A missed day earns nothing; the money is back in the next day. Before costs and taxes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
5 · Which asset wins
Equity, gold, bonds or US stocks? The winner changes every year
Each column ranks seven choices by their return in that calendar year, best at the top. Smallcap 250 came first 7 times in 19 years, and last 6 times. A balanced mix of 50% Nifty 50, 30% government bonds and 20% gold was never the best and never the worst. Pick any one to follow it through the years.
Swipe sideways for all years →
Show the numbers as a table
The start year changes the winner. From 2008, ₹1 lakh grew to ₹18.06 lakh in US stocks, ₹10.84 lakh in gold, ₹8.52 lakh in midcaps, ₹6.71 lakh in the mix and ₹4.88 lakh in the Nifty 50, because 2008 began at a peak for Indian shares. US stocks were helped by the rupee: it fell from ₹39.24 to ₹94.75 a dollar, so a 7.5x gain in dollars became 18.1x in rupees.
Total return indices from NSE: Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty 5 yr Benchmark G-Sec (govt bonds). Gold: Gold BeES NAV (AMFI, via mfapi.in), which tracks the Indian gold price after the fund's costs. US stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Index (Yahoo Finance) in rupees at each day's USD/INR. The mix is rebalanced every January. Before costs and taxes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
6 · Fund choice
Same category, same five years, very different results
Every dot is one fund's regular plan and its return a year over the five years to 4 Nov 2026. Among 22 focused funds, ₹1 lakh became anything from ₹1.15 lakh to ₹2.01 lakh. Even the 26 large cap funds ranged from 4.6% to 11.3% a year.
Show the numbers as a table
Picking the category is half the job. Picking the fund within it, and checking every year that it still deserves your money, is the other half.
AMFI NAVs, 190 equity funds with five years of history, regular plan growth option, returns a year (CAGR) to 4 Nov 2026. Funds are not named here on purpose: this is about the spread, not a list to pick from. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Questions
What the data says, in short
How often has the Nifty 50 lost money over one year and over five years?
Taking every trading day since January 2000 as a start, the Nifty 50 total return index lost money over the next year 23% of the time, over three years 4% of the time and over five years 0.1% of the time. Held for 7 years or more it never lost money; the worst ten-year return was 5.1% a year.
How long does the Nifty take to recover from a crash?
Since 2000 the Nifty 50 has fallen 15% or more from a record close 10 times and recovered each time, on average 12 months after the bottom and at most 27 months. The worst fall was 60%, from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008.
What happens if you miss the best days in the market?
₹1 lakh in the Nifty 50 total return index on 3 Jan 2000 grew to ₹21.57 lakh by 4 Nov 2026. Missing the 10 best of 6,673 trading days would have left ₹9.88 lakh, and missing the 30 best only ₹3.42 lakh.
Did SIPs make money even when started at a market peak?
A monthly SIP in the Nifty 50 total return index started in January 2008, just before the 2008 crash, has returned 11.7% a year to 4 Nov 2026. The best start month so far was Mar 2000, at 13.5% a year. 13 of the 311 SIPs shown are below what was put in today; the oldest of them was started in Jul 2024.
History is the map. Your plan is the route.
Want to see what this means for your own SIPs, goals and the funds you hold? Prateek will go through it with you.